Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
