Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
